The Annual Presentation
No. 12 | January 30, 2025
I have just published my annual decarbonization presentation. As a subscriber to my writing, you are receiving it here first.
My hope with such an effort is that the information speaks for itself, helped along by a modicum of narrative that captures our current moment. But, words and text work in tandem, and so – a few words.
We are in an exceptionally noisy moment, but also in a moment where the signals amidst the noise are very important, and potentially foundational. Last year was the hottest recorded in human history. It was a record year for anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel, and a record year for coal consumption.
It was also a record year for energy transition investment; a record year for solar, wind, and battery energy storage deployment; a record year for electric vehicle purchases too. The year 2024 was a year of more of everything.
It was also a year of manifestations, so to speak. As I look slightly back to look much further forward, I think that 2024 will prove to be a time when abstractions became concrete. Not just a year of record temperatures, but of heat in ways that materially impact life, work, and even culture. Not just a year when China exported millions of cars, but the year that its dominance of automobility became apparent. And, not just the year when AI became a component of business and popular culture, but a prime mover of what we build in the physical world too.
Looking back to look forward also means that I settle on three themes, or organizing principles. They are:
The year 2021: a year when all sorts of things got announced or committed, many of which are off the boil now for many reasons (business cycle, cost of capital, corporate culture)
The complex: a sense that the biggest industries of decarbonization are complex (difficult to understand) and also a complex (made up of many interacting parts)
Reagents: substances (or in this case, concepts, expectations, and material changes) that could substantially change the shape of the future.
I am often asked if I have a favorite slide in my presentations. I find it a difficult question to answer out of context, but here is one: US net energy imports and exports. The US used to import a great deal of primary energy; it now exports as much, on a trailing 12 months basis, as it imported when I was a boy.
You can find my annual presentation here.
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I am setting my speaking schedule for the first half of the year.
If you are interested in a keynote or a board briefing, I would love to hear from hear from you.
